Blowing Rock

• This Afternoon

  70°high

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 5pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 70. South wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

  Wind S 8 mph · 59% chance of precipitation

• Tonight

  64°low

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 64. South southeast wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

  Wind SSE 7 to 10 mph · 85% chance of precipitation

• Sunday

  69°high

  Showers And Thunderstorms

  Rain showers before 11am, then showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 3pm and 5pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

  Wind S 9 mph · 91% chance of precipitation

• Sunday Night

  64°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 10pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 10pm and midnight, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between midnight and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. West southwest wind 1 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

  Wind WSW 1 to 7 mph · 71% chance of precipitation

• Monday

  71°high

  Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A slight chance of rain showers between 8am and 11am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 71. Southwest wind 1 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

  Wind SW 1 to 5 mph · 76% chance of precipitation

• Monday Night

  62°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

  Wind WNW 3 mph · 76% chance of precipitation

• Tuesday

  70°high

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of rain showers between 8am and 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

  Wind E 2 to 6 mph · 82% chance of precipitation

• Tuesday Night

  63°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

  Wind SSE 3 mph · 82% chance of precipitation

• Wednesday

  71°high

  Showers And Thunderstorms

  A slight chance of rain showers before 8am, then showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 71. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

  Wind S 1 to 5 mph · 75% chance of precipitation

• Wednesday Night

  63°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

  Wind W 2 mph · 75% chance of precipitation

• Thursday

  72°high

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely

  A chance of rain showers between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  Wind SW 3 mph · 74% chance of precipitation

• Thursday Night

  64°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  Wind W 1 mph · 74% chance of precipitation

• Friday

  74°high

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely

  A chance of rain showers between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  Wind WSW 2 mph · 67% chance of precipitation

• Friday Night

  64°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64.

  Wind W 2 mph · 67% chance of precipitation

The reasoning behind the forecast, in the forecaster’s own words. In this region the elevation detail that never reaches a point forecast usually shows up here.

000
FXUS61 KRNK 011747
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
147 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased pops across the piedmont this afternoon 
and evening, otherwise forecast remains on track for
a wet finish to the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this
weekend, with the possibility of 1-3 inches of rain and a few
strong/severe storms.

2) Unsettled weather continues through the front half of the
week, with a possible decrease in convective coverage at the end
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... 
Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this weekend, 
with the possibility of 1-3 inches of rain and a few strong/severe
storms.

Low pressure over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will move slowly 
eastward into KY/TN this weekend with influx of moisture laden
air into the Appalachians...PWATs increasing into the 1.50 to
2.00 inch range for our forecast area. This will promote
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, beginning this
afternoon/evening and continuing through the day Sunday with 
primary focus along the southern Blue Ridge where Convective 
Allowing Models (CAMs) suggest S-SE upslope flow will enhance 
the rain efficiency and provide for an area of low level lift 
and regeneration. 

As the shortwave trough drives the low closer to our region, 
dynamic lift will also lead to sustainable rain production even
with loss of daytime heating, probability for rainfall just as
high tonight as it will be during the day Sunday. 

Greatest hazards through the weekend will be two-fold. 

The first hazards is heavy rainfall, especially given how moist
we expect the airmass to be across the forecast area. The storm
system will be rather slow-moving, allowing for the rain to be 
persistent. The development of off-and-on showers and storms 
over similar areas could result in localized ponding/flooding 
issues. As such, WPC has our area outlined for a Marginal, or 
Level 1 Risk, of excessive rainfall through Sunday with a 
Slight, or Level 2 Risk, of excessive rainfall for the southern 
Blue Ridge from Patrick and Carroll Counties in VA into the 
North Carolina High Country and Northwest Piedmont of NC.

The second hazard is the possibility of isolated strong or 
severe thunderstorms. The right entrance region of the upper jet
should be moving across our neck of the woods Sunday afternoon,
resulting in increased diffluence aloft. Thermodynamically, 
mixed-layer CAPE values around 1000 J/kg (maybe a little more) 
could seen, especially from Southside Virginia into the North 
Carolina Piedmont. With the increased forcing provided by the 
surface low and cold front to our west, we could see some 
isolated strong or severe storms in this environment. There are 
a couple of limiting factors in my mind... (1) Boundary layer 
wind speeds might be a tad low to get significant storm-scale 
organization. (2) If precipitation is more widespread than 
currently forecast, then instability should be lower. Given the 
overall risk, SPC has our area outlined for a Marginal Risk 
(Level 1) for seeing severe storms Sunday with the primary 
impact being damaging winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2... 
Unsettled weather continues through the front half of the week,
with a possible decrease in convective coverage at the end of the
week.

As an upper-level low settles into the Tennessee Valley, it should 
slowly push a cold front through most of our area before it stalls. 
The upper low is then expected to "sit and spin" close to the 
forecast area through much of the upcoming week. This feature will 
continue to send disturbances through a rather moist airmass, 
resulting in continued odds of seeing daily showers and 
thunderstorms. There's some indication that convective probabilities 
may decrease during the latter half of the week as the upper low 
ejects toward the Northeast U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Flight conditions are bordering between VFR/MVFR this afternoon,
as low clouds have moved into the area, and even a few isolated
showers have developed near DAN/LYH, though they have not
directly impacted the terminals. Light showers will move into
BLF/LWB in the next few hours, with scattered showers and
possibly a few storms develop along the Blue Ridge this
afternoon. All terminals have the chance to see rain, which
would briefly lower VSBY and cigs to sub-VFR as they move 
through.

Overnight tonight, a warm front lifts through the area, bringing
more widespread chances of rainfall to all terminals. Rain could
be heavy at times, as cigs lower to IFR/LIFR after 03z in the
mountains, and around 08z in the Piedmont. Patchy fog will also
be possible in spots, with LWB likely having dense fog through
mid-morning Sunday. Scattered rain chances persist through the 
end of the TAF period at all terminals tomorrow morning. 

Winds will be slightly elevated this afternoon from the south,
gusting between 15-20 knots at times. Winds reduce some overnight,
though occasional gusts to 15 knots remain possible until after
06z, when winds reduce further. For Sunday, winds shift to the
southeast, but gusts remain around 10-15 knots. 

Confidence in the above forecast is moderate. 

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... 

Shower/storm chances will stick around Sunday evening, as a cold
front moves into the area. The front stalls, allowing daily
chances of rain to continue, keeping likely sub-VFR flight
conditions in place at times through the week ahead. Overnight 
patchy fog will also be possible each morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB/PM
AVIATION...JCB