Boone

• This Afternoon

  74°high

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 74. South wind around 12 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

  Wind S 12 mph · 47% chance of precipitation

• Tonight

  64°low

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms then Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Southeast wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

  Wind SE 7 to 10 mph · 77% chance of precipitation

• Sunday

  73°high

  Showers And Thunderstorms

  Rain showers likely before 11am, then showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 3pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 3pm and 5pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. South wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

  Wind S 9 mph · 88% chance of precipitation

• Sunday Night

  63°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 10pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 10pm and midnight, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between midnight and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Southwest wind 1 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

  Wind SW 1 to 8 mph · 76% chance of precipitation

• Monday

  75°high

  Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A slight chance of rain showers between 8am and 11am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Southwest wind 1 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

  Wind SW 1 to 6 mph · 81% chance of precipitation

• Monday Night

  62°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

  Wind S 3 mph · 81% chance of precipitation

• Tuesday

  74°high

  Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  A chance of rain showers between 8am and 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

  Wind S 2 to 7 mph · 81% chance of precipitation

• Tuesday Night

  62°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms then Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

  Wind SE 5 mph · 81% chance of precipitation

• Wednesday

  74°high

  Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms after 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

  Wind S 2 to 6 mph · 75% chance of precipitation

• Wednesday Night

  63°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

  Wind SW 3 mph · 75% chance of precipitation

• Thursday

  76°high

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely

  A chance of rain showers between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  Wind SW 3 mph · 72% chance of precipitation

• Thursday Night

  64°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  Wind SW 2 mph · 72% chance of precipitation

• Friday

  77°high

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely

  A chance of rain showers between 8am and 2pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

  Wind W 3 mph · 68% chance of precipitation

• Friday Night

  64°low

  Showers And Thunderstorms Likely then Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms

  Showers and thunderstorms likely before 8pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 8pm and 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

  Wind W 2 mph · 68% chance of precipitation

The reasoning behind the forecast, in the forecaster’s own words. In this region the elevation detail that never reaches a point forecast usually shows up here.

000
FXUS61 KRNK 011701
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
101 PM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased pops across the piedmont this afternoon 
and evening, otherwise forecast remains on track for
a wet finish to the weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this
weekend, with the possibility of 1-3 inches of rain and a few
strong/severe storms.

2) Unsettled weather continues through the front half of the
week, with a possible decrease in convective coverage at the end
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1... 
Showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast this weekend, 
with the possibility of 1-3 inches of rain and a few strong/severe
storms.

Low pressure over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will move slowly 
eastward into KY/TN this weekend with influx of moisture laden
air into the Appalachians...PWATs increasing into the 1.50 to
2.00 inch range for our forecast area. This will promote
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, beginning this
afternoon/evening and continuing through the day Sunday with 
primary focus along the southern Blue Ridge where Convective 
Allowing Models (CAMs) suggest S-SE upsplope flow will enhance 
the rain efficiency and provide for an area of low level lift 
and regeneration. 

As the shortwave trough drives the low closer to our region, 
dynamic lift will also lead to sustainable rain production even
with loss of daytime heating, probability for rainfall just as
high tonight as it will be during the day Sunday. 

Greatest hazards through the weekend will be two-fold. 

The first hazards is heavy rainfall, especially given how moist
we expect the airmass to be across the forecast area. The storm
system will be rather slow-moving, allowing for the rain to be 
persistent. The development of off-and-on showers and storms 
over similar areas could result in localized ponding/flooding 
issues. As such, WPC has our area outlined for a Marginal, or 
Level 1 Risk, of excessive rainfall through Sunday with a 
Slight, or Level 2 Risk, of excessive rainfall for the southern 
Blue Ridge from Patrick and Carroll Counties in VA into the 
North Carolina High Country and Northwest Piedmont of NC.

The second hazard is the possibility of isolated strong or 
severe thunderstorms. The right entrance region of the upper jet
should be moving across our neck of the woods Sunday afternoon,
resulting in increased diffluence aloft. Thermodynamically, 
mixed-layer CAPE values around 1000 J/kg (maybe a little more) 
could seen, especially from Southside Virginia into the North 
Carolina Piedmont. With the increased forcing provided by the 
surface low and cold front to our west, we could see some 
isolated strong or severe storms in this environment. There are 
a couple of limiting factors in my mind... (1) Boundary layer 
wind speeds might be a tad low to get significant storm-scale 
organization. (2) If precipitation is more widespread than 
currently forecast, then instability should be lower. Given the 
overall risk, SPC has our area outlined for a Marginal Risk 
(Level 1) for seeing severe storms Sunday with the primary 
impact being damaging winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2... 
Unsettled weather continues through the front half of the week,
with a possible decrease in convective coverage at the end of the
week.

As an upper-level low settles into the Tennessee Valley, it should 
slowly push a cold front through most of our area before it stalls. 
The upper low is then expected to "sit and spin" close to the 
forecast area through much of the upcoming week. This feature will 
continue to send disturbances through a rather moist airmass, 
resulting in continued odds of seeing daily showers and 
thunderstorms. There's some indication that convective probabilities 
may decrease during the latter half of the week as the upper low 
ejects toward the Northeast U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The primary aviation impact through Saturday night will likely be 
gusty gradient winds of 15-20 kts as an area of low pressure moves 
into the OH Valley. S winds should back toward the SE by 02/0600 
UTC, with sustained wind speeds 5-10 kts.

Otherwise, VFR flight categories are expected to continue through at 
least 02/0000 UTC. The exception may be some late night/early 
morning BR at terminals in SE WV, especially IVOF KLWB. More 
widespread flight category reductions will likely begin to spread NE 
from W NC after 02/0300 UTC, as moisture increases ahead of an 
approaching storm system. And while ISOLD-SCTD SHRA/TSRA cannot be 
ruled out, the odds of any one TAF site receiving precipitation 
remain low. As such, convection was not mentioned in the 01/0600 UTC 
TAFs.

OUTLOOK SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... 

Sunday-Monday: Restrictions expected as a storm system brings SCTD 
to numerous SHRA/TSRA to the region. This will result in periods of 
lower CIGs and reduced VSBYs

Tuesday-Wednesday: Unsettled weather and possible restrictions are 
expected to continue. There are indications that SHRA/TSRA 
probabilities will decrease slightly by mid-late week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DB/PM
AVIATION...DB